Sources, as even quoted by several local dailies, indicate that Raila has developed cold feet towards joining the Broad Based Government of National Unity. This comes two days after Men in Black were unable to threaten Kalonzo Musyoka into submission.

By being unable to subdue Man Stevo, the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition has split into two factions. In ODM itself, some members like Babu Owino have said that they will side with the people which means that Raila has not managed to pull his party together.

One interesting fact is that politicians will always go for their own survival first. By joining an unpopular government 3 years to the next elections, experienced politicians are wary about being shown the door by the electorates.

It is noteworthy that President Ruto won the Presidency by only 34% of the registered voters in 2022. The people who are asking him hard questions are another 30% that did not vote in 2022 but will most likely vote in 2027. A voting block of 30% is not a constituency that any politician would want to wish away.

There is an assumption that if Ruto and Raila join hands in 2027, they will easily win the elections. The fact is, people are looking for change and they would easily vote for an alternative candidate who is not affiliated to the government just to edge closer to their desire for change.

So, Raila and Ruto can still join hands and a candidate from nowhere who will sell the narrative of change effectively sweeps them clean.

We all know Ruto and how he plays his cards. If he was sure of winning the 2027 elections as he currently is, he would not be joining hands with the opposition in a bid to suppress the divergent views.

Some old guards have started downplaying the impacts the young generation have on governance. If they are keen on what happens at the international stage, I would encourage them to follow what students in Bangladesh have done in less than a week.

In 2027, though the old guards will apply the bribal cards in their voting pattern, the young generation will go for ideology and future prospects of a candidate. Ruto was a beneficiary of the change narrative and he might be a victim of it too.

Duncan Ndung’u is a subsistence farmer who knows nothing about politics.